Long-Term Care Market Analysis

The global long-term care market represents one of the most significant and rapidly expanding segments of the healthcare industry, driven by unprecedented demographic aging across both developed and developing economies. The market encompasses formal, paid services delivered across home healthcare, nursing care and skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, hospice and palliative care, and other specialized long-term care services for individuals requiring sustained support with activities of daily living. The market is characterized by profound regional diversity, ranging from the mature, publicly funded systems of Europe and Japan to the emerging, family-dependent care models of Africa and South Asia. The World Health Organization projects that the global population aged 65 and above will more than double from approximately 750 million in 2025 to over 1.5 billion by 2050, with the 85 and above cohort, which has the highest per capita utilization of long-term care services, growing most rapidly. According to the research report, "Global Long Term Care Market Outlook, 2031," published by Actual Market Research, the Global Long Term Care Market was valued at more than USD 1249 Billion in 2025, and expected to reach a market size of more than USD 1768 Billion by 2031 with the CAGR of 6.12% from 2026-2031. Across OECD countries, long-term care spending is projected to increase annually by 2.6% until 2050, driven by population aging, rising expectations of quality of life in old age, the shrinking supply of informal care, and the labour-intensive nature of the sector that limits productivity gains. In 2023, 1.8% of GDP was allocated to long-term care across OECD countries, with public long-term care spending projected to almost double by 2050, rising to 2.8% of GDP. Four out of five dollars spent on long-term care across OECD countries come from public sources, reflecting the strong role of government financing in mature care systems, while out-of-pocket spending and unpaid family caregiving remain predominant in emerging markets. North America dominates the global market with total spending on long-term services and supports reaching $563.7 billion in 2023, representing 13.7% of all personal health care spending in the United States. Europe represents the second-largest regional market, with Germany operating the largest statutory long-term care insurance system in Europe with 6.01 million beneficiaries and expenditures reaching €73.8 billion in 2025. The Asia Pacific region represents the fastest-growing market, with Japan's long-term care costs reaching ¥14.3 trillion in fiscal 2025 and China's long-term care insurance programme expanding to 308.55 million insured persons. Nursing homes represent the largest service segment globally, accounting for around half of health and social long-term care spending across OECD countries, while home healthcare is the fastest-growing segment, driven by the strong preference for aging in place and government policies promoting community-based care. .

Market Dynamic

 Long-Term CareSegmentation

Global Long-Term Care Market By Service Type



Nursing Care / Skilled Nursing Facilities is the largest service segment because high-acuity residents with complex medical needs require 24-hour care and supervision across all global markets.

Nursing care and skilled nursing facilities represent the largest service segment in the global long-term care market, accounting for around half of health and social long-term care spending across OECD countries. The United States has approximately 14,742 federally certified nursing facilities serving approximately 1.2 million residents as of July 2025. Germany has approximately 800,000 people living in full inpatient care. France has 7,302 EHPAD with 609,983 places. Japan has 8,621 special nursing homes with 604,469 capacity and a 94.5% occupancy rate. China has 7.679 million elderly care beds, with nursing beds accounting for 69.9% of the total. The segment faces significant workforce challenges, with over 64% of Japan's special nursing homes reporting staff shortages and Australia needing nearly 120,000 more aged care staff by 2035/36.

Home Healthcare is the fastest-growing service segment because the strong preference for aging in place and government policies promoting community-based care are driving demand across all regions.

Home healthcare represents the fastest-growing service segment in the global long-term care market, driven by the strong preference for aging in place and government policies promoting community-based care. In the United States, 87% of the 9.7 million Medicaid LTSS users in 2023 received services in home- and community-based settings. In Germany, 86.2% of care-dependent people lived in outpatient settings in 2023, with 9 out of 10 living in their own homes in 2025. In South Korea, home-based care grew by 10.3% in 2025, outpacing the 8.0% rise in institutional care. Australia's Home Care Packages rose to 292,911, an increase of 17,425. China's 14th Five-Year Plan period saw the cumulative construction of 570,000 home-based elderly care beds. The segment faces significant workforce shortages, with 1.6 million additional long-term care workers needed by 2050 in Europe alone.

Global Long-Term Care Market By Payer Type



Public is the largest payer type because government financing through national health systems and social insurance schemes dominates long-term care funding across mature markets globally.

Public sources are the dominant payer for long-term care services across mature markets globally. Four out of five dollars spent on long-term care across OECD countries come from public sources. In Germany, the social long-term care insurance system covers 6.01 million beneficiaries with expenditures reaching €73.8 billion in 2025. In Japan, the long-term care insurance system covers 6.01 million beneficiaries with costs of ¥14.3 trillion in fiscal 2025. In South Korea, the National Health Insurance Service covered 91.4% of the total benefit burden at 16.1618 trillion won in 2025. In the United States, public sources paid for 69.4% of LTSS spending in 2023, with Medicaid and Medicare accounting for a combined 63.6%. In Canada, approximately 78% of long-term care costs are publicly funded. In Spain, public investment in dependency care reached €13.734 billion in 2025.

Private represents a growing payer type because private equity investment in senior living and the expansion of private care home operators are increasing across all regions.

Private sources account for a growing portion of long-term care spending globally. In France, the top 15 EHPAD operators manage 108,000 beds, with private equity firms increasingly investing in the sector. In Spain, private sector investment in senior living is growing, with care bed capacity needing to increase from 384,000 to 616,000 by 2033. In the UK, private care home operators dominate the sector, with average EBITDARM margins growing to 30.1% in 2025. In China, approximately 26,000 private hospitals represent 68% of all hospitals. In India, the senior living market is attracting significant private investment, with the organised supply of senior citizen homes at 22,157 units as of June 2025. Private long-term care insurance is more developed in some countries than others, though penetration remains limited across most of the globe.

Global Long-Term Care Market By Age Group



The 85 years and above cohort is the largest age group because the highest per capita utilisation of long-term care services is concentrated among the oldest-old population, with the vast majority of institutional residents aged 80 and above.

The 85 and above age group accounts for the largest share of long-term care spending globally, driven by the highest per capita utilisation of services. In the United States, about one-half of nursing home residents are 85 years of age and older, with the average age at admission being 84. In Canada, 50.0% of long-term care residents nationally are aged 85 and older, with the average age of residents holding steady at 83. In Germany, the majority of nursing home residents are aged 85 and above. In the UK, approximately 60% of permanent residential care residents are aged 85 and above. In Australia, approximately 60% of permanent residential care residents are aged 85 and above. In Japan, the 85-89 age group represents 25.8% of certified LTCI recipients. The 85+ population is the fastest-growing demographic segment globally, with the number of people aged 80 and above projected to double by 2050.

The 75 to 84 years cohort is a significant age group because it represents the transition phase for many long-term care users moving from home-based services to institutional care.

The 75 to 84 age group represents a significant share of long-term care spending globally. In France, approximately 1.5 million dependent elderly are in this age range. In Italy, the average age at admission to RSA facilities is 85.5 years. In Sweden, the number of people aged 80 and above is rising from 900,000 in 2024 to 1.8 million in 2045. In Canada, 50.7% of long-term care residents in Alberta were younger than 85, compared with 50.0% nationally. This cohort is in the transition phase for many long-term care users, moving from home-based services to institutional care as functional decline accelerates.

Global Long-Term Care Market By Gender



Female is the largest gender segment because higher life expectancy and higher rates of disability in advanced age drive greater long-term care utilisation among women, who also dominate the caregiving workforce.

Women account for the largest share of long-term care spending globally, driven by higher life expectancy and higher rates of disability in advanced age. In France, about 7 out of 10 women and 4 out of 10 men use APA during retirement, with women spending approximately 10% of their retirement period in dependency. In Spain, women over 80 are the predominant profile of SAAD beneficiaries, with 62% of applications submitted by women and 72% of non-professional caregivers being women. In Germany, women represent approximately 61.1% of all people in need of care. In Japan, women represented 20.51 million of the elderly population (65+), exceeding men by 4.83 million, with 4.987 million women among the 7.354 million certified care recipients. In South Africa, older women continue to outnumber older men, with just 65 older men for every 100 older women in 2025. In Argentina, the feminisation of ageing is a significant phenomenon, with women aged 75 and above representing almost 6% of the total female population compared with 4% of men. Women also dominate the long-term care workforce, comprising the majority of nurses, direct care workers, and family caregivers.

Male is a smaller but growing gender segment because the gender gap in long-term care utilisation is gradually narrowing as male life expectancy increases.

Men account for a smaller but growing share of long-term care spending. In France, about 4 out of 10 men use APA during retirement, with men spending approximately 6% of their retirement period in dependency. In Germany, men represent approximately 38.9% of all people in need of care. In Japan, among the 7.354 million certified care recipients, 2.367 million were men. In Colombia, men represent 44.3% of the adult population aged 60 and above. In South Africa, older men are more likely to be married and living with a spouse, which provides informal care support and reduces their reliance on formal care services. The gender gap in long-term care utilisation is gradually narrowing as male life expectancy increases and social norms around caregiving evolve. The caregiving workforce remains predominantly female, with women providing the majority of unpaid family care across all regions.

 Long-Term Care Market Regional Insights

North America

dominates the global long-term care market, supported by advanced healthcare infrastructure, high healthcare spending, and mature care systems. The U.S. leads the region, while Canada faces growing bed shortages and staffing challenges. Mexico presents emerging opportunities driven by population aging and expanding home-care programs.
Asia Pacific

is the fastest-growing region, driven by rapid population aging, expanding long-term care insurance, and government investment. Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, and India are key markets, although severe shortages of care workers remain a major challenge.
Europe

is the second-largest market, supported by established insurance and social-care systems. Germany, Spain, France, and the UK are major markets, while aging populations and infrastructure gaps continue to increase demand.
South America

is an emerging market, led by Brazil and Colombia. Growing elderly populations and new national care policies are driving expansion, although long-term care capacity remains below demand.
Middle East & Africa

is a diverse and developing market. South Africa and Israel have relatively established care systems, while the UAE is experiencing rapid growth supported by healthy-aging initiatives and increasing elderly populations.